The political conversation about inflation, however, is not very good. In fact, it’s largely a charade, with enough artifice to go around among all the actors involved.
Those dramatic allegations have placed the GOP in a strong position for midterm election gains this fall. But on the merits, they omit lots of contradictory evidence.
The resulting inflation has indisputably produced economic pain for millions of families, eroding the buying power of higher paychecks. At the same time, they have not been “crushed” badly enough to prevent them from spending at a steady pace.
That’s because families up and down the income scale, thanks to Covid relief checks, generally still have more money than before the pandemic; in the experiment of economic analysts, “household balance sheets” still have “excess savings.” Unemployment has fallen back below 4%.
“The excess saving has been enough to cushion the impact of declining real wages on spending, even for lower-income households,” says Moody’s chief economist, Mark Zandi. “American households are for the most part in a good financial place.”
The Biden White House was hardly alone last year in believing inflation would be short-lived. So did the Federal Reserve, the government agency responsible for monitoring and controlling inflation through stewardship of monetary policy.
The media’s role is always to hold government accountable. But the unelected, comparatively obscure Fed does not hold daily press briefings.
The White House, home to the most visible public official of all, does. So reporters continually question the President about solutions to rising prices, even though, in a free-market economy, no White House has much power to bring them down.
The President’s role is to answer the questions. For unhappy voters, “not much I can do” doesn’t cut it.
Presidents feel special pressure to provide an answer on rising gas prices. Rising numbers on posted signs at the pump — determined by supply and demand for oil — make voters especially irate.
While the inflation debate may be largely phony, it is not entirely phony. Presidential policies can make inflation worse.
Presidents can also temper inflation, if only on the margins. Administration efforts to ease price pressures by helping smooth out supply chains help a little. So does the record release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
The Fed chairman he inherited was Jerome Powell, a Republican appointed to that post by Trump. President Barack Obama had first tapped Powell for the Fed board in 2011.
Late last year, Biden decided to keep Trump’s chairman in place. On May 12, 80 of 100 senators — including overwhelming majorities of Republicans and Democrats alike – voted to confirm the President’s choice.